Measuring the impact of imports on the gross domestic product in Iraq for the period 2004-2021

Abstract

The research was conducted to ascertain the impact of imports on Iraq's GDP, which is a critical element in the development of economic policies and strategies. The study demonstrated that imports had a detrimental impact on Iraq's GDP in both the short and long term by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the relationship between imports and domestic product. According to the short-term elasticity value of (-0.24), the increase in imports resulted in a 24% decrease in GDP in Iraq, with a minor 1% offset in other sectors. This decrease in GDP underscores the substantial influence that an increase in imports can have on a nation's overall economic performance. This research emphasises the significance of evaluating the effects of import trends on technological advancements, resource allocation, and infrastructure projects in Iraq. Engineers and policymakers can strive to create sustainable solutions that foster domestic production, innovation, and economic growth in the long term by acknowledging the detrimental impacts of excessive imports on GDP.