Forecasting Foreign Trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina for Wood and Articles of Wood, Wood Charcoal by Seasonal ARIMA Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21533/pen.v5.i1.1993Abstract
In this study, it is aimed that the analysis of export and import values of Bosnia and Herzegovina for wood and
articles of wood, wood charcoal with seasonal ARIMA model and forecasting of export and import values for next
term by the best appropriate seasonal ARIMA model. The data used in this study were obtained from Trade
statistics for international business development (TRADEMAP) and monthly data covering the period of January
2007 and December 2015. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was used for the stationarity test. Temporary model that
have smallest values of forecasting accuracy measurement was determined. The appropriateness of the model
(whether plot of autocorrelation has white noise) was determined by using the Box-Ljung test. As a result, ARIMA
(3,1,0)(0,1,2)12 model was found as the best forecasting model for both export and import series. It was estimated
that export value of Bosnia and Herzegovina for wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal is approximately 531
million$, while import value is 160 million$ in 2020.
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