A forecast model for a road network’s section traffic capacity assessment on a territory of the cryolithozone in conditions of the climate change

Abstract

A model is proposed in which the capacity of the road network section depends on the technical and operational condition of the road surface – the presence of sinkholes, potholes, ruts, as well as their predictive depth. Appearing of these defects on the road surface is associated with excessive thawing and permafrost soil settlement in the formation occurring under the influence of the climate change. The soil thawing depth is modelled on the basis of predictive climatic parameters during the full average year, and then the maximum thawing depth and the corresponding soil settlement is determined. Three main scenarios of the climate change are considered: temperature contrast increasing, uniform warming and their combination. The assumed value of warming or temperature contrast increasing is considered to be a random value distributed according to the normal law; the predicted decrease in the road section capacity is defined as a weighted average over the entire range of possible climate changes. According to the results of the numerical implementation of the model on the road network sections for natural and climatic conditions of Yakutia, it is shown that in the third scenario of the climate change the road network section capacity is predicted to decrease from 17% (the formation is dry sandy permafrost soil) to 50% (the formation is clay soil of high humidity). The impact of natural and climatic features of the territory is predicted to be at a level up to 10% of the total reduction in the capacity of road network sections.