Forecasting foreign trade of Bosnia and Herzegovına for wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal by seasonal ARIMA model

Nadir Ersen, İlker Akyuz


In this study, it is aimed that the analysis of export and import values of Bosnia and Herzegovina for wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal with seasonal ARIMA model and forecasting of export and import values for next term by the best appropriate seasonal ARIMA model. The data used in this study were obtained from Trade statistics for international business development (TRADEMAP) and monthly data covering the period of January 2007 and December 2015. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was used for the stationarity test. Temporary model that have smallest values of forecasting accuracy measurement was determined. The appropriateness of the model (whether plot of autocorrelation has white noise) was determined by using the Box-Ljung test. As a result, ARIMA(3,1,0)(0,1,2)12 model was found as the best forecasting model for both export and import series. It was estimated that export value of Bosnia and Herzegovina for wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal is approximately 531 million$, while import value is 160 million$ in 2020.
Key words: Seasonal ARIMA model, wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal, export, import, forecasting

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ISSN: 2303-4521

Digital Object Identifier DOI: 10.21533/pen

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