Agro-economic models: a review and directions for research

Maryna Nehrey, Andrii Kaminskyi, Mariana Komar

Abstract


The article is devoted to reviewing of main 8 models, which are used to analyze the agriculture sector, medium, and long-term forecasts, as well as policy making. The review is based on comparative analysis of models conducted by the authors according to a number of criteria. On its basis, formed the distinctive features of modeling, which are realized in these models. The first distinctive feature is the problem of choosing the level of aggregation in models. This feature generates the direction of research about the effectiveness of the application of one or another aggregation level in modeling. The second distinctive feature of modeling is structurization models into two types: partial equilibrium and computable general equilibrium models. The method of choosing the type of model is one of the actual problems. The third distinctive feature is dominance of deterministic approaches in the construction of models. The use of stochastic analysis in models, in the opinion of the authors, does not yet have a system analysis. Based on the carried out analysis, the authors tried to form directions for the development of the agriculture sector modeling.

Keywords


Agricultural market, Agricultural policy, Computable General Equilibrium model, Economic modelling, Partial Equilibrium model

Full Text:

PDF

References


A. Kavallari, T. Fellmann and S. Gay, "Shocks in economic growth = shocking effects for food security?", Food Security, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 567-583, 2014. Available: 10.1007/s12571-014-0368-y..

M. Blanco-Fonseca, "Literature review of methodologies to generate baselines for agriculture and land use.", Sevilla Abrufbar, 2010.

W. Thompson, J. Dewbre, S. Pieralli, K. Schroeder, I. Pérez Domínguez and P. Westhoff, "Long-term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices", Food Policy, vol. 84, pp. 1-9, 2019. Available: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.12.001.

M. Leeuwen et al., The agri-food sector in Ukraine. Luxembourg: Publications Office, 2012.

M. Banse et al. “Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets-A Model based analysis.” No. 706-2016-48356. 2012.

A. Burrell, E. Ferrari and A. González Mellado, Potential EU-Mercosur free trade agreement. Luxembourg: Publications Office, 2011.

J. Helming and A. Tabeau, "The economic, environmental and agricultural land use effects in the European Union of agricultural labour subsidies under the Common Agricultural Policy", Regional Environmental Change, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 763-773, 2017. Available: 10.1007/s10113-016-1095-z.

H. van Meijl et al., "Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050", Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, no. 6, p. 064021, 2018. Available: 10.1088/1748-9326/aabdc4 [Accessed 26 June 2019]..

M. Kempen, P. Witzke, I. Pérez Domínguez, T. Jansson and P. Sckokai, "Economic and environmental impacts of milk quota reform in Europe", Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 29-52, 2011. Available: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.10.007.

S. Adebayo, "A Review of Decision Support System Using Mobile Applications in the Provision of Day to Day Information about Farm Status for Improved Crop Yield", Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences, vol. 6, no. 2, 2019.

V. Babenko, "Formation of economic-mathematical model for process dynamics of innovative technologies management at agroindustrial enterprises", Actual Problems of Economics, vol. 139, no. 1, pp. 182-186, 2019.

M. Artavia, H. Grethe and G. Zimmermann, "Stochastic market modeling with Gaussian Quadratures: Do rotations of Stroud's octahedron matter?", Economic Modelling, vol. 45, pp. 155-168, 2015. Available: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.017.

T. Möller, H. Grethe, K. Waha, & C. Müller. “Modeling Climate Change Impacts on European Agriculture: Does the Choice of Climate Models matter”. In XIIIth EAAE Congress" Change and Uncertainty: Challenges for Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources”, 2011

L. Shutes, M. Banse and A. Rothe, Factor markets in applied equilibrium models. Brussels, Belgium: Centre for European Policy Studies, 2012.

Shorikov, and V. Babenko. “Optimization of assured result in dynamical model of management of innovation process in the enterprise of agricultural production complex”, Economy of Region, is. 1, pp. 196-202.

FAPRI-MU, 2011. [Online]. Available: https://www.fapri.missouri.edu/wocpresentations2011/.

T. Hertel, J.Beckman. Commodity price volatility in the biofuel era: an examination of the linkage between energy and agricultural markets. In The Intended and Unintended Effects of US Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies University of Chicago Press: pp. 189-221.

L. Zomchak and M. Nehrey, Econometric modeling of functioning and development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine. Kyiv: Comprint, 2018. [in Ukrainian].

Y. Satyakti, B. Havrland and V. Pobedischi, "IMPACT OF EU BIOFUEL DIRECTIVES POLICIES ON DEVELOPING ECONOMIES", in 11th International Scientific Conference: Engineering for rural development, Latvia University of Agriculture, 2012.

M. Rutten, L. Shutes, G. Meijerink. “Sit down at the ball game: How trade barriers make the world less food secure”, Food Policy, 38, pp. 1-10.

J. Beghin, B. Xiong. Economic Effects of Standard-Like Nontariff Measures: Analytical and Methodological Dimensions. CARD Working Papers, 2016.

M. Nehrey, I. Chabanenko.”Partial equilibrium models as a tool for research of agriculture sector”, Black Sea Economic Studies, vol.36, pp.326-331. [in Ukrainian].

M. Himics, M. Artavia, S. Hélaine S. (2014) Calibrating the CAPRI and ESIM models to the mid-term commodity market outlook of the European Commission. Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 2014.

M. Adenäuer, “CAPRI versus AGLINK-COSIMO. Two partial equilibrium models-Two baseline approaches”, in 12th Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE), pp. 26-29.

G. Philippidis, J. Helming, A. Tabeau. Model linkage between CAPRI and MAGNET: An exploratory assessment. JRC Technical Reports. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2017.

R. M’barek, W. Britz, A. Burell, J. Delincé, J. An integrated modeling platform for agro-economic commodity and policy analysis (iMAP)–a successful European experiment. JRC Scientific and Policy Report, European Commission, Seville, Spain, 2012.

B. Xiong and J. C. Beghin, “TTIP and agricultural trade: The case of tariff elimination and pesticide policy cooperation,” Agribusiness, vol. 34, no. 3, pp. 495–508, 2018.

M. Li, W. Zhang, D. Hayes, “China’s Agricultural Import Potential (No. 18-pb23),” Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University 2018.

H. Törmä, K. Zawalinska. Final documentation of the CGERegEU+ model. FP7 CAPRI-RD project, Deliverable 3.2. 3, 2011.

A. Wania, F. Ramos, J. Terres. Report on methodology to update land use map based on CAPRI/CGERegEU+ baseline and code implementation, 2013.

W. Britz and T. W. Hertel, “Impacts of EU biofuels directives on global markets and EU environmental quality: An integrated PE, global CGE analysis,” Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, vol. 142, no. 1-2, pp. 102–109, 2011.

E. Sajedinia, W. Tyner. Use of General Equilibrium Models in Evaluating Biofuels Policies, in 20th GTAP Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, 2017.

G. Woltjer, M. Kuiper, A. Kavallari, H. van Meijl, J. Powell, M. Rutten, A. Tabeau. The MAGNET model: Module description (No. 14-57). LEI Wageningen UR, 2014.

M. Banse, H. Grethe. “Top down, and a little bottom up: modelling EU agricultural policy liberalization with LEITAP and ESIM,” in Contributed paper at the 11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, Finland, 2008.

H. Lotze-Campen, M. V. Lampe, P. Kyle, S. Fujimori, P. Havlik, H. V. Meijl, T. Hasegawa, A. Popp, C. Schmitz, A. Tabeau, H. Valin, D. Willenbockel, and M. Wise, “Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison,” Agricultural Economics, vol. 45, no. 1, pp. 103–116, 2013.

A. Kaminskyi. “Risk management: recent developments and issues”, Scientific Papers NaUKMA. Economic Sciences. V 2, N. 1, pp. 52-59, 2017. [in Ukrainian].

T. Banerjee, M. Mishra, N. Debnath, and P. Choudhury, “Implementing E-Commerce model for Agricultural Produce: A Research Roadmap,” Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences, vol. 7, no. 1, 2019.

J.L. Harwood, Managing risk in farming: concepts, research, and analysis. Washington, DC: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, ERS, 1999.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21533/pen.v7i2.579

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2019 Maryna Nehrey, Andrii Kaminskyi, Mariana Komar

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

ISSN: 2303-4521

Digital Object Identifier DOI: 10.21533/pen

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License