Perfecting of mathematical tools for forecasting the country development vectors on the basis of economic and demographic parameters system analysis

Olena Provolotska, Svetlana Voloshyna, Olena Nieizviestna, Katerina Holikova

Abstract


Under the conditions of activeglobe community activitiesaimed atsolving systemic problems in socio-economic development the scientific and practical interest to the study of demo-economic processes applying mathematical tools increases objectively. This issue is especially actual for Ukraine, which hadeconomic conditions similar to many EU countriec, but got unsatisfactory results in the market economy functioning. Therefore, it is the task of paramount importance to establish cause-effect relationships between key demo-economic indicators of Ukraine and a country with a set of similar conditions of development (Poland) to adjust the strategic goals of sustainable development of Ukraine towards the meeting of EU demographic standards.The results of the analysis of the demo-economic situation in Ukraine and Poland in 2000-2017 revealed opposite trends in development. The human factor proved to be a strong component of development for both countries. The methodical approach to the assessment of the regional level of human development, based on the improvement of the mathematical tools for forecasting the development vectors of the country, is proposed. It is based on the grouping of country regions according to certain demographic parameters. Common and peculiarissues of human development indifferent regions of Ukraine are systematized upon the basis of clusterization. The established regularities of demo-economic development of entire Ukraine and regional features, the levers of state regulation of human potential formation of Poland were taken into account and laid as the basis of scientific and practical recommendations for adjusting the Strategy of Sustainable Development of Ukraine.

Full Text:

PDF

References


V. Babenko, M. Pasmor, Ju. Pankova, and M. Sidorov, "The place and perspectives of Ukraine in international integration space," Problems and Perspectives in Management, vol. 15, Issue 1, pp. 80-92, 2017.

V. Kayukov, and Yu. Melchakova, "Interrelation of demographic processes with the state of the economy," Economics, Management, Finance: III International Scientific Conf., pp. 177-180, 2014.

S. Vasilenkov, "Fertility in Europe will be upgraded by immigrants," 2013, available at: http: // https: //www.pravda.ru/world/europe/12-07-2013/1165419-rojdaemost-0/.

L. Chepel'evskaya, Yu. Yashchenko, N. Kondratyuk, and O. Semenyuk, "The state of the demographic situation in Ukraine: the problems and ways of their solution," Ukraine. Health of the nation, vol. 3, pp. 251-256, 2012.

I. Mietule, I. Maksymova, and K. Holikova, "Modern socio-demographic trends affecting the business sector of the economies of Latvia and Ukraine," Society. Integration. Educatoin. Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference. - Rezehne Academy of Technologies, vol. 4, pp. 304-311, 2018.

S. B. Babu, "Medical Disease Prediction using Grey Wolf optimization and Auto Encoder based Recurrent Neural Network," PEN, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 229 – 240, 2018.

F. Taktak, "The Urban Transformation with New Legal Regulations," PEN, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 217 – 223, 2017.

E. Libanova, "External Labor Migrations of Ukrainians: Scales, Causes, Implications," Demography and Social Economics, vol. 2, pp. 11-26, 2018.

L. Kurilo, C. Aksenova, and L. Slyusar, "Marriages, fertility and reproduction of the maternal generation in Belarus and Ukraine: the experience of comparative analysis," Demography and Social Economics, vol. 2, pp. 29-46, 2017.

B. Krimer, "Transformation of fertility in Ukraine in the early stages of demographic transition," Demography and Social Economics, vol. 2, pp. 67-81, 2018.

A. Jakubowska, and Z. Horváthová, "Economic Growth and Health: a Comparative Study of the EU Countries," Economics & Sociology, vol. 9, No 3, pp. 158-168, 2016.

A. Kurowska, M. Myck, and K. Wrohlich, "Making work pay: increasing labour supply of secondary earners in low income families with children," Contemporary Economics, vol. 11(2), pp. 161-170, 2017.

M. A. R. Estrada, S.-F. Yap, and N. A. B. Ismail, "Revisiting the Phillips Curve: Visualization from a Multidimensional Graphical Perspective," Contemporary Economics, vol. 11(1), pp. 67-90, 2017.

E. Libanova, and ed., "Human development in Ukraine. Innovative types of employment and prospects for their development," Institute of Demography and Social Studies named after M.V. Ptuha of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 328 p., 2016.

N. Levchuk, "Health and life expectancy in Ukraine in the context of the formation of prerequisites for innovative employment," Demography and Social Economics, vol. 1, pp. 54-65, 2017.

N. Ryngach, "Economic equivalent of losses due to premature mortality in Ukraine," Demography and Social Economics, vol. 2, pp. 39-49, 2016.

A. P. Kulaychev, "Methods and tools for complex analysis of data," Moscow: INFRA-M., 512 p., 2006.

J. A. Hartigan, and M. A. Wong, "Algorithm 136. A k-means clustering algorithm," Applied Statistics, No 28, pp.100, 1978.

Demographic and social statistics, 2000-2017, State service of statistics of Ukraine, available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua (in Ukr.).

Demographic and social statistics, 2000-2017, State service of statistics of Poland, available at: http://stat.gov.pl/en/basic-data/

Gross domestic product, 2000-2017, "Total and per capita, current and constant (2010) prices, annua," UNCTAD, available at: https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=96

World Economic Forum, "The Challenge," World Economic Forum, 2017, available at: http://reports.weforum.org/inclusive-growth-and-development-report-2017/section-1-the-challenge/#view/fn-1-5.

ILO and OCED, "The Labour Share in G20 Economies – Report Prepared for the G20 Employment Working Group Antalya, Turkey," ILO and OCED, 2015, available at:http://www.oecd.org/g20/topics/employment-and-social-policy/

C. Barz, C. K. Jalba, Z. Erdei and S. M. L. Hah, "Approaches for the planning and implementation of Industry 4.0," PEN, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 375- 380, 2019.

United Nations Development Programme, "Human development data (1990-2017)," UNDP, available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/data

R. Costanza, M. Hart, S. Posner, and J. Talberth, "Beyond GDP: The Need for New Measures of Progress," The Pardee Papers, No. 4, January, 2009.

P. Coy, "The Rise of the Intangible Economy: U.S. GDP Counts R&D, Artistic Creation," Bloomberg, July 18, 2013.

L. Daly, and S. Posner, "Beyond GDP - New Measures for a New Economy," Demos, 2011, available at: http://www.demos.org/sites/default/files/publications/BeyondGDP_0.pdf.

World Economic Forum, "Lower-Middle Income Countries," World Economic Forum, 2017, available at:http://reports.weforum.org/inclusive-growth-and-development-report-2017/lower-middle-income-countries/

World Economic Forum, "Upper-Middle Income Countries," World Economic Forum, 2017, available at: http://reports.weforum.org/inclusive-growth-and-development-report-2017/upper-middle-income-countries/

World Economic Forum, "Ukraine Lower Middle Income," World Economic Forum, 2017, available at: http://reports.weforum.org/inclusive-growth-and-development-report-2017/scorecard/#economy=UKR

Some issues of improving the system for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of the implementation of the state regional policy, Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, No 1029, Dec. 20, 2017.

Ministry of Regional Development, Construction and Housing and Communal Services of Ukraine "The index of regional human development in Ukraine (by regions) in 2017," Ministry of Regional Development, Construction and Housing and Communal Services of Ukraine, 2017, available at: http:/www.minregion.gov.ua/napryamki-diyalnosti/regional-dev/derzhavna-rehional-na-polityka/monitorynh/monitorynh-monitorynh/osnovni-tendentsiyi-sotsialno-ekonomichnogo-rozvitku-regioniv/rozrahunok-indeksu-regionalnogo-lyudskogo-rozvitku-za-2017-rik

O. Kolodiziev, V. Tyschenko, V. Ostapenko, and T. Kolodizieva, "Assessment of the development level of information and communication infrastructure in the regions of Ukraine," Problems and Perspectives in Management, vol. 16, Issue 2, pp. 134-144, 2018.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21533/pen.v7i2.575

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2019 Olena Provolotska, Svetlana Voloshyna, Olena Nieizviestna, Katerina Holikova

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

ISSN: 2303-4521

Digital Object Identifier DOI: 10.21533/pen

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License